The pandemic is probably just getting started: Five ideas for business success in the new world

As I write this, much of the news is focused on how “things are getting back to normal.” Social and business restrictions are being loosened. Key pandemic-related measurements of new infections, hospitalizations and mortality are showing improvements. “Social distancing” (I prefer the term “physical distancing”) and determined usage of face masks, hand washing and disinfectants seem to have imposed control over the likelihood of increasing infections and caused the waning of COVID-19.

Are you confident that a global pandemic can be beaten so quickly? I am not.

The pandemic is probably not done with us. The odds are that over the next few months the pandemic will recede in some places and grow in others. Some of the growth will be overlooked. Eventually, later this year or sometime in 2021 the pandemic will reassert itself. It could be worse.

That was the pattern followed by the most recent previous pandemic, the global flu that started over a century ago during the First World War. As Spring 1918 turned to Summer, the flu seemed to have run its course in the United States. Extraordinary measures, including the wearing of face masks and limiting gatherings of groups of people, were relaxed and concluded because people thought that the need had passed.

A few months later the flu returned. It was worse, and persisted into 1919. Eventually, about one-third of the world’s population had been infected with the illness.

As you do what you have to do for the here-and-now, try to carve out some time to look at what your business needs beyond the next few weeks. Here are some ideas:

Financial
How much cash-on-hand is available? What are my borrowing options?
Business outlook
How is COVID-19 changing the demand for those things that my business sells? Should I prepare other lines of business for the future?
Marketplace position
How competitive is my current position with respect to other businesses that compete for my customers, and what can I do to improve my competitiveness within the business outlook of my particular marketplace segment?
Operations
Am I doing enough of the right things to maintain high enough levels of healthy staffing (with paid sick leave and health care) and safe and clean working conditions such that the business operations do not cause illness for the customers?
Community stress
How does community-wide uncertainty with respect to safety affect the demand for my business offerings within the next month, and then within the next two months, and then within the next three months, and beyond three months away?

Garry Herron

Chief Business & Economics Advisor

A lifelong resident of Southern California and a UCLA graduate, Garry Herron's experience with business and economics spans a first career in big business and a second career in small business. Now retired from both enterprises he volunteers his time to help others, especially students enrolled at local institutions of public higher education. He has found that combining four decades' worth of experiences in business with research on how national and global economics impact business success is key to helping college students transition from education to career.

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